Seed Industry Roundtable: What We’re Seeing as We Head Into Spring

At our March PSA board meeting, leaders from across the seed industry shared candid updates from their regions and businesses. The roundtable discussion highlighted a season shaped by relative market stability, mounting logistics pressures, and significant water and weather risks, particularly in the western U.S.

Here’s a snapshot of what members are seeing on the ground as we move deeper into spring.

Market Conditions & Logistics: Watching the Cost Landscape

Across the board, distributors are heavily stocking fertilizer in response to rising prices. While this helps hedge against future cost increases, it’s also tightening budgets and warehouse space—leading some customers to delay or reduce near-term seed purchases. At the same time, freight and shipping costs remain elevated, fuel prices are high, and rail congestion is expected to increase heading into summer.

Takeaway: Fertilizer stocking may temporarily crowd out seed orders, and logistics planning will be critical as we approach peak shipping months. 

Seed Movement & Pricing: Stability Brings Predictability

Despite broader economic pressures, seed movement remains steady. Tall fescue and perennial ryegrass pricing has stabilized compared to last year, helping both suppliers and customers plan with more confidence. Many customers are carrying slightly higher inventories and placing purchase orders earlier for late spring and summer blends.

Early blending and staging—particularly in regions like Minnesota—has already improved warehouse flow and positioned companies well for June and July demand.

Takeaway: Pricing stability and proactive logistics are improving operational efficiency across the supply chain.

Production Outlook: Cautious Optimism, Weather-Dependent

In much of the Pacific Northwest, including Neskowin, the Columbia Basin, and the Willamette Valley, crop conditions are tracking similarly to last year. Vernalization has largely been achieved, and current expectations point toward average to slightly below-average yields (up to ~10% below)—though much will depend on spring weather.

Elsewhere, drought is exerting serious pressure:

• Snowpack in some regions is only about 30% of normal

• Planting started as much as 45 days early

• Water shutoffs could arrive as early as Memorial Day

• Some growers expect only 17–30 days of irrigation water

As a result, many growers are shifting acres away from water-intensive crops like corn and toward cereal grains and pasture mixes, which are seeing record demand.

Takeaway: Strong early activity masks real risk—water availability and weather volatility will ultimately shape the season. 

Drought, Wildfire, and Native Seed Markets

Board members flagged high concern for a potentially historic wildfire year. Changes to the BLM bid process—now spread across multiple rounds—appear to be driven by logistical constraints. A major fire season could significantly strain native seed supply and increase demand for substitute species such as intermediate and slender wheatgrass.

Takeaway: Companies should be prepared for rapid shifts in native seed demand and availability this summer. 

Grower Economics & Inventory Dynamics

Grower economics are mixed but generally improving:

• Hazelnut returns have climbed as high as $2.40/lb, improving cash flow and reducing pressure to liquidate seed inventories

• Many growers are less concerned about holding 2022–2024 crops, with a growing focus on storage capacity

• Radish demand has softened, while turnips have gained market share

• Red clover demand remains strong, driven in part by renewed European purchasing that cleared significant inventory

Takeaway: Improved grower cash flow is easing short-term selling pressure, but inventory mix and storage constraints remain important considerations. 

Despite drought, logistics challenges, and weather uncertainty, overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Growers and companies are adapting quickly—shifting crops, adjusting execution timelines, and leaning on early planning to stay ahead of disruption.

As one theme emerged clearly from the roundtable: those who plan early, stay flexible, and communicate often will be best positioned for the months ahead.